One cover, five misses — the Oddsnyper model's projections for the October 25 slate took a beating, and the season numbers aren't hiding from it either.
Utah -6.5 against Houston was the only projection from this slate that came through clean. The Utes covered, full stop. Everything else on the board this week went the other way, so we'll take the one.
That's the extent of the good news. One spread hit. Everything surrounding it — the total in that same game, two other spreads, two other totals — missed.
The Houston-Utah total projected over 56.5 and came in under. A game can see its favorite cover by a healthy margin and still finish well short of a big number, and that's exactly what happened here.
North Dakota State at New Mexico was a clean sweep of misses. The model liked the Bison at +4.5 and liked the over at 40.5. Both lost. When a spread and total both whiff in the same game, it usually means the projection had the wrong shape of the game entirely, not just the wrong number.
UTSA at Tulane went the same way. Tulane +3 lost, and the under at 51.5 lost too. Three games, six projections, one winner. That's not a results we're going to dress up.
Zoom out and the broader numbers are what they are: spreads sit at 170-199-7, totals at 192-191, moneylines at 203-231, across 434 graded games this season. None of those are gaudy. None of them are catastrophic either. They're a model's projections being checked against reality over a long sample, and the reality right now is middling across all three markets.
A week like this one — five losses out of six — doesn't tank a season total by much on its own, and a hot week wouldn't have inflated it much either. That's the nature of grading hundreds of games instead of six.
None of this is a betting record and none of it should be read as one. These are projections graded for accuracy against what actually happened on the field, nothing more. A win on Utah -6.5 doesn't mean the model found something the market missed, and a bad week like this one doesn't mean the process is broken. It means six games were graded, and five of them didn't go the way the projection said they would.
We'll keep grading them as they come and reporting them as they land, wins and misses both.