The main event delivered exactly what the model said it would. A look back at every call from Holloway's statement win to the two late misses nobody saw coming.
Fourteen fights graded, twelve winners called correctly. That's 86%, and on a card with this much depth in the prelims, I'll take it every time. This wasn't a card where the model got lucky on a bunch of coin-flip decisions either — it ran through names like Whittaker, Steveson, Yanez, and Basharat without blinking.
The story of the night, obviously, was Max Holloway going out and finishing Conor McGregor by knockout. The model had that exact outcome. Not a hedge, not a split call — the winner and the method, both correct. When your marquee fight lands clean like that, the rest of the card recap writes itself a little easier.
Don't confuse the 12-2 card record with what we actually told you to bet. Most of this card was PASS-graded — the model had opinions, but not enough conviction to put money behind them. Only two fights cleared the bar for a real play, and both of them hit.
Holloway over McGregor by finish was the A+ play of the night, worth +0.45 units. The other A+ play — and frankly the sharper number of the two — was Mario Bautista over Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision, which paid +1.15 units. Two plays, two green checks, +1.60 units total. That's the number that actually matters if you were following the card recap to make money and not just to read commentary.
Picking the winner is half the job. On the twelve correct calls, the model also nailed the finish method nine times — Holloway by KO/TKO, Bautista by decision, King Green by KO/TKO, Whittaker by KO/TKO, Steveson by KO/TKO, Yanez by KO/TKO, Wang Cong by decision, Basharat by decision, and Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO. That's a strong method-calling night by any measure.
The three method misses came in fights the model still got the winner right on. Brandon Royval beat Lone'er Kavanagh by submission instead of the method predicted. Luke Riley finished Kai Kamaka III by KO/TKO, not the way the model called it. And Damian Pinas stopped Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO when a different finish was projected. Right fighter, wrong ending — I'll take that trade every day of the week, but it's worth being straight about it rather than just touting the win column.
Two fights went sideways on the winner pick, and there's no dressing it up. Benoit Saint Denis was the pick against Paddy Pimblett, and Pimblett went out and won by submission. Wrong fighter, clean and simple.
The other miss was Cody Durden over Alessandro Costa. Costa won by submission instead. Neither of these were recommended plays, so the unit ledger stays untouched, but a card recap that only talks about the hits isn't worth reading. Two wrong, twelve right, and the two fights we actually staked money on both cashed. That's a night I'll sign up for again.