Today's model picks across MLB, NFL, CFB, NBA, NHL and UFC — published before the event and graded publicly afterwards.
Today's slate — 12 plays
PIT @ CLE — SPREAD: HOME +2.5 (+100) · grade C
PIT @ CLE — TOTAL: OVER 38.5 (-105) · grade C
FLA @ SJS — puck_line: SJS +1.5 (-198) · grade C
EDM @ VAN — puck_line: VAN +1.5 (-130) · grade B
SEA @ CGY — total: UNDER 5.5 (+105) · grade B+
TBL @ NYR — total: UNDER 5.5 (+105) · grade B+
PHI @ NJD — total: UNDER 5.5 (+100) · grade B+
CHI @ UTA — total: UNDER 6.5 (-135) · grade B+
BUF @ CBJ — total: UNDER 6.5 (-135) · grade A
MIN @ NSH — total: UNDER 6.5 (-130) · grade A
EDM @ VAN — total: UNDER 6.5 (-105) · grade A
FLA @ SJS — total: UNDER 6.5 (-115) · grade A
Every line above was published before the event started and is locked. Once
the result is official it is graded win, loss or push and joins the permanent
record — winners and losers both.
How to read a pick
Each play carries four numbers, and they answer different questions:
Pick and price — the side and the American odds available when the play was published. The price is part of the pick; the same side at a worse number is a different bet.
Model probability — how often the model expects that side to win, from simulation rather than from the market.
Edge — model probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points. It is the disagreement with the market, not a promise.
Confidence grade — S, A+, A or B+, reflecting how much the model trusts its own inputs on that game: confirmed lineups and starters, sample size behind each rating, and how far the edge sits from the noise.
When picks publish, and how they are graded
Plays are written before the event and frozen. Nothing is edited after the
fact, and a play that was posted cannot be withdrawn if it looks wrong later —
that is the point of a public ledger. Grading is done against official results,
and pushes and voids are recorded as such rather than dropped.
Markets covered depend on the sport. Baseball runs moneyline, run line and
total; college football runs spread and total; UFC runs the fight winner with
method and round projections alongside it.